Disappearances Among UFO and Defense Researchers: A Base-Rate Perspective on Conspiracy Claims

To the point

Disappearances and deaths among defense scientists like Amy Eskridge, Monica Reza, William McCasland, Steven Garcia, Michael Hicks, Nuno Loureiro, and Carl Grillmair may seem conspiratorial, but base-rate data and ordinary explanations show these cases fit normal risks and patterns rather than a secret cabal.

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As I write this the week of April 20, 2026, both mainstream media and social media are chockablock full of coverage of the disappearance or death of eleven (and counting) U.S. scientists who worked on UFOs, nuclear weapons, military defense, propulsion systems, or other related fields (a category that