County-level Bayesian Analysis of UAP Reports in the United States (2001–2020): Linking Sightings to Visibility and Aviation Activity

To the point

Medina, Brewer, and Kirkpatrick analyzed 98,724 UAP reports across the contiguous US from 2001–2020 with a Bayesian model linking county sighting rates to visibility factors (light pollution, cloud cover, tree canopy) and airborne activity (airports, military sites), finding more reports where air traffic density and military land are higher, fewer where tree canopy and light pollution are dense, no credible relation to cloud cover, regional hotspots in the West and Northeast, and noting data limitations while arguing many reports reflect human-made aircraft seen under favorable conditions rather than rare natural phenomena.