A Bayesian Assessment of Technosignature Detectability: Longevity, Galactic Reach, and Implications for Wide-Area Searches

To the point

Claudio Grimaldi's Bayesian analysis finds that detecting technosignatures within a few thousand light-years would require an unrealistically large number of past signals, unless those signals last a long time and are spread across the Milky Way, in which case detection becomes plausible and we should pursue long‑term, wide‑area searches across vast galactic distances because a lack of detections does not rule out rare, distant, or long‑lasting signals.