Vitalik Buterin Bets No Alien Disclosure by 2027 on Polymarket
A high-profile move in crypto-based prediction markets linked Vitalik Buterin to extraterrestrial speculation. Buterin placed about $148,000 on Polymarket betting that the United States will not officially confirm extraterrestrial life before 2027. The timing followed Donald Trump’s announced plan to release government UFO-related files, and odds on alien disclosure jumped from roughly 12% to 28% in the wake of the announcement, illustrating how political headlines can rapidly reprice prediction-market instruments. Polymarket uses yes/no contracts where shares pay $1 if the event occurs or does not, with current prices reflecting probability (e.g., a 0.28 price implies a 28% chance). Buterin’s strategy is contrarian: bet against markets that have entered a frenzy, aiming to profit when hype drives probabilities above what evidence justifies. This approach is supported by his past activity, including profits from 2024 and 2025 bets and a current position sized to target about $16,000 in profit. The primary risk remains binary: official confirmation would invalidate the NO position. The episode also highlights broader trends: prediction markets have grown rapidly in early 2026, with daily volumes around $700–800 million and annual volumes near $28 billion in 2025, driven by political events and liquidity on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi. The situation underscores how headlines can influence markets, the potential of prediction markets as forecasting tools, and the behavioral biases—such as availability and herd behavior—that can drive rapid, sometimes speculative, probability shifts.
Source: news.az
