Kalshi Bet on 2026 U.S. Disclosure of Extraterrestrial Life Draws Attention
A prediction-market event drew attention when a trader placed about $100,000 on a contract on Kalshi that pays out only if the Trump administration formally confirms extraterrestrial life or technology by year-end 2026; a second, nearly as large bet followed soon after. The contract resolves to Yes if the President, any Cabinet member, any Joint Chiefs of Staff member, or any U.S. federal agency states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists before January 1, 2027. The trades briefly moved the market’s implied odds to roughly one in three. Trading is restricted for individuals connected to source agencies or with material nonpublic information. The bets arrived in lump sums rather than through incremental sizing and came after related chatter had faded, a pattern some analysts describe as either the work of an amateur or someone with nonpublic information. Analyses of prediction markets suggest they can act as paranoia generators, signaling whether people believe such extraordinary disclosures are likely and how information asymmetries might influence betting.
Source: newser.com
