Radical Mundanity and the Fermi Paradox: Implications of a Modest Galactic Civilizations Population

To the point

Radical mundanity posits that the Galaxy hosts only a small number of technology-using civilizations, none have carried out large-scale space engineering or shown a drive to do so, robotic colonization and long-lasting beacons are unlikely, yet contact could still occur relatively soon and be momentous but possibly disappointing, offering a middle ground between being completely alone and Arthur C. Clarke’s extreme view about whether we are alone.

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arxiv.org

A Less Terrifying Universe? Mundanity as an Explanation for the Fermi Paradox

Applying a principle of radical mundanity, this paper examines explanations for the lack of strong evidence for the presence of technology-using extraterrestrial civilizations (ETCs) in the Galaxy - the Fermi paradox. With this principle, the prospect that the Galaxy contains a modest number of civilizations is preferred, where none have achieved technology levels sufficient to accomplish large-scale astro-engineering or lack the desire to do so. This consideration also leads to the expectation that no ETC will colonize a large fraction of the Galaxy, even using robotic probes, and that there are no long-duration high-power beacons. However, there is a reasonable chance that we may make contact on a short, by historical standards, timescale. This event would be momentous, but could still leave us slightly disappointed. Such a Universe would be less terrifying than either of the two possibilities in the quote generally attributed to Arthur C. Clarke on whether we are alone or not. Also, if there is a modest number of ETCs in the Galaxy, that would suggest that there is a large number of planets with some form of life.